Crown Prince MBS, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, is no stranger to the risks associated with power. Known for his ambitious Vision 2030 and his controversial tactics, including a crackdown on dissent that has drawn international criticism, MBS has now placed himself in the crosshairs of potentially even greater peril. His pursuit of a grand bargain involving the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations has brought him to a new precipice—one where the stakes are not just political but deeply personal, even life-threatening.

MBS has reportedly confided in U.S. lawmakers that his life could be in danger as he navigates the treacherous waters of Middle Eastern diplomacy. Drawing a parallel with the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who was killed by Islamist extremists after signing a peace treaty with Israel, MBS has expressed concern that he could face a similar fate. The Crown Prince’s fear is not unfounded; the region’s history is rife with leaders who have paid the ultimate price for making peace with Israel. This historical context underscores the enormity of the risk MBS is taking as he attempts to broker a deal that could redefine the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

The proposed agreement, which remains largely shrouded in secrecy, reportedly includes several key components: security guarantees from the U.S., aid for a civilian nuclear program, and economic investment in technology and other sectors. In return, Saudi Arabia would establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel, a monumental shift given the Kingdom’s historical stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The deal also includes a provision for limiting Saudi Arabia’s dealings with China, aligning Riyadh more closely with Washington’s strategic interests.

Grand vision is not without its complications. The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been reluctant to include a credible path to Palestinian statehood in the agreement—a sticking point that MBS insists is non-negotiable. For the Crown Prince, this is not merely a matter of diplomacy; it is a question of legitimacy both at home and across the Muslim world. As the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, MBS is acutely aware that any deal perceived as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause could spark widespread unrest, threatening his hold on power.

The Palestinian issue remains the most significant obstacle to Saudi-Israeli normalization. For decades, Saudi Arabia has maintained that any peace with Israel must be contingent on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. This position is deeply ingrained not only in the Kingdom’s foreign policy but also in its national identity. The Palestinian cause resonates profoundly with the Saudi populace and the broader Arab and Muslim communities. Any perceived compromise on this issue could be seen as a betrayal, undermining MBS’s standing domestically and regionally.

The Crown Prince’s insistence on including a credible path to Palestinian statehood in the deal is a reflection of this reality. He has reportedly told American lawmakers that without addressing the Palestinian question, his tenure as the guardian of Islam’s holy sites would be untenable. This is a critical point, as the legitimacy of the Saudi monarchy is closely tied to its role as the protector of these sacred sites. MBS understands that any agreement that fails to secure justice for the Palestinians would not only alienate his people but also compromise his role on the world stage.

Despite the enormous risks, MBS appears determined to move forward with the deal. For the Crown Prince, the potential benefits of Saudi-Israeli normalization are too significant to ignore. Establishing formal ties with Israel could bring substantial economic and security advantages, strengthening Saudi Arabia’s position as a regional power and bolstering its economy in line with Vision 2030. It could also enhance the Kingdom’s relationship with the United States, providing crucial security guarantees at a time when regional tensions, particularly with Iran, are escalating.

MBS’s calculated gamble is fraught with danger. The recent conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions across the Arab world, with widespread outrage over Israeli actions against Palestinians. This anger is not confined to the streets of Gaza; it has reverberated throughout the region, including within Saudi Arabia. Many young Saudis, who make up a significant portion of the population, have been particularly vocal in their support for the Palestinian cause. For them, the conflict is not just a distant political issue but a deeply personal one, shaped by their identity and the values they hold dear.

In this volatile environment, any move toward normalization with Israel could be seen as a betrayal of these values, sparking backlash not only from external forces but also from within the Kingdom. MBS is well aware of these dynamics, which is why he has been careful to frame the deal as one that must include a genuine commitment to Palestinian statehood. By doing so, he hopes to mitigate the potential fallout and present the agreement as a step toward a just and lasting peace in the region.

The United States plays a pivotal role in this high-stakes diplomatic game. For Washington, the prospect of Saudi-Israeli normalization represents a major foreign policy victory, one that could reshape alliances in the Middle East and counter the influence of Iran and China. The Biden administration has shown a keen interest in advancing this deal, with President Joe Biden personally involved in the discussions.

U.S. faces its own set of challenges. Any agreement that does not address the Palestinian issue in a meaningful way risks further destabilizing the region and undermining America’s credibility as a broker of peace. Moreover, the administration must navigate the complex dynamics of U.S. domestic politics, where support for Israel is strong but where there is also growing concern about the humanitarian impact of Israeli policies in the Palestinian territories.

MBS’s references to the assassination of Anwar Sadat can be seen as a strategic move to pressure U.S. officials into ensuring that Israel makes the necessary concessions on Palestine. By invoking the specter of assassination, the Crown Prince is reminding his American counterparts of the stakes involved and the potential consequences of a deal that fails to deliver on its promises.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s pursuit of normalization with Israel is a bold and risky move, one that could redefine Saudi Arabia’s role in the Middle East and its relationship with the world. However, this path is fraught with dangers, not least of which is the potential threat to MBS’s own life. The Crown Prince’s determination to include a credible path to Palestinian statehood in the deal reflects his understanding of the delicate balance he must maintain between his ambitions and the realities of the region.

As the negotiations continue, the world watches with bated breath. The outcome of this high-stakes gamble will have far-reaching implications not only for Saudi Arabia and Israel but for the entire Middle East. Whether MBS can successfully navigate these treacherous waters and emerge as a peacemaker or whether his gamble will lead to further instability remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the Crown Prince is playing a dangerous game, one where the stakes are nothing less than his future and the future of his kingdom.

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